Showing posts from 2017

Seattle’s Minimum Wage Hike May Have Gone Too Far | FiveThirtyEight

Minwage3 (Photo credit: Wikipedia) Researchers at the University of Washington, asked by Seattle to study the increase in the city's minimum wage have some difficult news for the city and previous research on wages:

Seattle’s Minimum Wage Hike May Have Gone Too Far | FiveThirtyEight: The study is far from the last word on the impact of Seattle’s law, let alone the $15 minimum wage movement more generally. Indeed, just last week another study used similar methods to reach seemingly the opposite conclusion: A report from the Institute for Research on Labor and Employment at the University of California, Berkeley, found that Seattle’s minimum wage, “raises pay without costing jobs,” as a press release on the study announced.   The Berkeley study, however, looked exclusively at the restaurant industry. That has been a common practice in minimum-wage research, because the industry is one of the largest employers of low-wage workers. But the University of Washington study suggests a poss…

The U.S. Budget and Compromises

English: A graph of the US GDP compared with Federal budget outlay. (Photo credit: Wikipedia) The United States' federal budget spends a lot of money: between $3.5 and $4.0 trillion annually.

How much do citizens of the United States earn each year? A little more than $6 trillion. In other words, the U.S. government is spending roughly two-thirds of the amount earned by all working Americans. Two-thirds.

The top 10% of income earners represent $1 trillion in earnings, certainly a lot, equal to the entire stock valuation of Apple (not the same as Apple's earnings, which are $9 billion per quarter, $36 billion annually).

If every penny earned by the top 10% were confiscated it would have no material effect on the federal budget. That's how out of sync spending is today.

The total wealth in the United States is nearly $70 trillion, meaning everything owned by every person or company, at current "fair value" is worth $70 trillion. Yet, if you were to sell off…

Trump and Brownback and the GOP

If socialists and statists wanted to damage limited government and republicanism they could not have chosen better men as Manchurians than Trump and Brownback.

Trump is the poster child for crony capitalism and everything against the ideals of a free and open society you could imagine. Open: as in trade, borders, tolerance, speech....

Brownback apparently never completed a serious economics course and certainly never read Adam Smith, Hayek, or Milton Friedman. You balance budgets with mildly progressive taxes that recognize the commons must be funded or the middle-class will revolt. (Smith noted all rebellions in English politics are from the monied classes, not the bottom.)

Low taxes are ideal. As low as the community will tolerate, ideally. Low and fair, rewarding hard work. But you cannot cut taxes without a plan to determine what should be funded and why.

In my ideal world, only first-responders and a handful of other priorities are funded through taxes. As little as possib…

Economics of the Minimum Wage

Map of U.S. Minimum Wage laws (Photo credit: Wikipedia) Minimum wage debates tend to overstate the estimated and real effects of any changes to the minimum wage in the Unites States. Most studies show a minor increase in a place with wages already rising has no significant effect on employment. But, there is a cost when wages rise quickly and there is an effect when wages fail to keep pace with the cost of living. The problem is that the minimum wage is not, contrary to any mythologies, the income of most adults with full-time work.

As the debates below suggest, there is a limit to what a local economy can bear in terms of wage growth. At the same time, we know that low wages also reflect jobs that can be or will be automated away in many instances. We are in a new era of creative destruction, with no real plan for the displaced workers without skills.

Allow me to provide an example of how silly on all sides the debate on wages is. Mark Perry gets the facts right in his piece on th…

Advice on how to talk to the white working class.

English: Number of self-identified Democrats vs. self-identified Republicans, per state, according to Gallup, January-June 2010 18 point Democratic advantage 10-17 point Democratic advantage 3-9 point Democratic advantage 2 point Democratic advantage through 2 point Republican advantage 3-9 point Republican advantage 10-17 point Republican advantage 18+ point Republican advantage (Photo credit: Wikipedia) Best interview I've read on the Trump voters. Period. And the Slate reporter? Total jerk. Cannot stand the tone of the questions. I resent the tone. It is precisely why I am not and will never be a Democrat. The insulting, condescending, Thomas Frank "you're all idiots back home" rhetoric pushes me away from the "elites."

The reporter? I dislike him more and more as the interview transcript progresses. A self-absorbed, self-righteous intellectual moron.

I dislike Trump. A…

No Pattern to Strong Economies? Yes! All Western States...

English: Economic regions of California, as defined by California Economic Strategy Panel, October 2006 Northern California Northern Sacramento Valley Greater Sacramento Bay Area Central Coast San Joaquin Valley Central Sierra Southern California Southern Border (Photo credit: Wikipedia) What do the strongest state economies in the United States share? Blue states with high taxes? NOPE. Red states, with low taxes and right-to-work laws? NOPE.

In the end, it is LOCATION. In particular, the states in the West and Southwest are the big powers of the U.S. economy. That's the only thing they have in common. Really.

Read more:
Economic Power States for 2016-17 - All in the West. The perennial leaders have been California and Utah, two states without a whole lot in common other than mountains, saltwater lakes and the tech industry. Texas kinda sorta belongs on the leader list, too, given that it didn't miss the 2016 top 10 by all that much (it came in 17th place), and it had the countr…

Paris: Not a Treaty… and That's a Mistake

US-EPA-Seal-EO11628 (Photo credit: Wikipedia) President Trump's potential unilateral withdrawal from the Paris Accord on Climate should remind all politically engaged Americans that there is a risk when presidents ignore process. Executive orders and executive action can be undone.

Had the Paris Accord on Climate been ratified as a treaty, by the Senate, no president could then withdraw unilaterally. The Accord was, unfortunately, not entered into with Senate ratification.

The lesson here: executive-only actions are a bad idea. But, Congress is worthless, too.

Our government is broken. Badly. In case anyone was wondering.

People cheer when "their president" does things without Congress. The problem with executive actions is that they are undone just as easily.

We also shouldn't enter into armed conflict without Congressional approval. But, why bother with details of the Constitutional process?

Related articlesWhat Is The Paris Climate Agreement? Are Accord, Climate C…

Systems are Self-Defensive Organisms

English: Schematic diagram of the hexon of a virus capsid (Photo credit: Wikipedia) "The surest way to incur the wrath of a government agency is to demand they do their job," a friend from the "justice system" told me.

I'm finally cynical enough to agree and I was pretty cynical before this year.

Once you have a "system" in place, it exists to defend itself. It's like corporations... but with even less oversight. Who controls the system? Other parts of the same larger governmental system? The federal government oversees states, to a degree, but then what?

Though recourse generally exists through courts and legislatures, it's hard to change the bureaucracy.

When Tax Cuts Increased Revenue

History of top marginal income tax rates in the United States (Photo credit: Wikipedia) One of more popular / infamous posts here on Almost Classical is "The 90% Tax Rate Myth." It explores the differences between marginal and effective rates and explains that when the marginal rate was 90% or higher, the effective rate remained relatively consistent, between 40 and 50% throughout the twentieth century. Even in most of Europe, effective rates stay close to that same range, indicating something of a natural ceiling for effective tax rates.

No serious economist would propose a tax rate of five or ten percent for the highest income earners. The actual debate among economists is where tax rates produce the greatest revenues with the least detriment to risk taking and entrepreneurship. In current academic papers, the debate on the highest marginal individual tax rate ranges from 35% to 60%, with most studies finding 45% works well as an effective tax rate on the top ten percent…

Reading for Sanity: Naked Economics

Economists agree on more than they disagree. This might seem like an exaggeration, since the debates on policy are so heated. But policy debates are not about the resolved math or well-established theories within economics. Instead, policy debates are driven by value judgments. What economists and their colleagues in behavioral science, data science, psychology, linguistics, rhetoric (my little niche) and elsewhere can agree on are some rather basic tested notions. What we disagree on is what makes for a "good and righteous" society — and even if we want a values-based government at all.

Charles Wheelan's Naked Economics: Undressing the Dismal Science is 15 years old. Yet, the book reminds me that until recently there was generally more agreement than disagreement within the field of economics and its associated disciplines.

I'm rereading Naked Economics because the hyperbolic rhetoric from the left and right, which are not even that extreme in the United States, h…

The Price of Progressive Policies - Technocracy

Frederick Winslow Taylor (Photo credit: Wikipedia) During the Progressive Era from the 1865-1935, the "progressive movement" supported eugenics and other "scientific" methods for improving the societies of humans. The rush to embrace the new and improved — the future — blinded many progressive thinkers from the risks of their ideology. They foresaw a technocratic class in charge of government, rule of the educated class. Like today, they wanted to ban unhealthy activities (Prohibition) and demand people accept the regulatory power of experts.

The caricature of the right, that it wished to go backwards, was and is generally inaccurate. Instead, most conservatives simply wanted to move ahead cautiously and with a conservative skepticism of the experts. Looking back now, the conservatives were right about more than a few things the Progressives promoted.

We should realize from experience that there is no one, universal, predictable path forward for any community.…

Your Meme Won't Change Me (or anyone else)

Facebook "memes" are among the least and most effective rhetorical devices in use. They are ineffective at changing ideas or winning arguments. They are extremely effective at ensuring your community perceives you as a loyal member, and they reinforce the dominant values and positions in the community.

The memes get more and more extreme as people seek to prove just how much they hate the opposing camp. The claims about the values and authenticity of the opposition also trend towards absolute dismissal and discounting of any genuine differences.

Republicans become thugs and fascists. Democrats become communists. Both sides argue the other represents "real" fascist and authoritarianism. The reality is, there aren't many radicals in the United States. Most voters are centrists.

Social media posts from left and right are demonstrating absolutist stupidity in many of these threads. Conservatives and libertarians are neither extreme anarchists nor fascists. (A…

Exhausted by the Panic

By the end of 2017, I'll care much less about all things political. I'm already finding the constant calls to "do something" exhausting. Sorry, but no... I'm not going to "do" anything anymore.

I wrote... and wrote. I made art, including a satirical campaign film.

Like many, I voted. I didn't get my way.

Listening to Ohio and WV radio stations, I realize that the planned protests actually deepen the support some have for the winner. It makes them all the more committed to resisting "left-coast" radicals and the "elites" they already distrust and dislike.

My job is to take care of our kiddos and take care of myself. That's about all I can manage, right now.

And I'm pretty convinced that little will change (not nearly as much as some fear/believe) in a year or four years.

Activism can wait until I'm up to it. Right now, the panic seems a bit much. Maybe it isn't, but it seems over the top to me.

No, the new presiden…

Time for Supporters of Trump and Clinton to Face Reality

Supporters of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton seem to be stuck in reality distortion bubbles. This is slightly more pronounced on the Trump side, where outright misinformation is believed. But the Clinton supporters are quick to selectively cite misleading information. Misleading data are only slightly better (and sometimes worse) than wrong information when trying to understand and correct problems.

Trump supporters:

He lost the popular vote. There was no widespread fraud, no mobs of illegal immigrants storming the ballot boxes. He lost, and lost significantly on the raw national popular vote total. (But it is complicated. See notes to Clinton supporters.)He is the least popular president-elect in the history of polling data. There is no mandate.He plans to nominate a cabinet that troubles many traditional conservatives, libertarians, and progressives. That's not a way to build bridges when you lack a mandate.He has a serious problem with facts. You know, that "truthiness&…