Almost Classical

Though the contemporary Republican Party has never been libertarian enough for me or many others focused on economic issues, we at least imagined the GOP would lead a President Trump, who came into office with no governing experience and a platform that was populist and nationalist. The GOP has failed to do much practical at all. If you, like me, at least hoped Trump would be contained by party orthodoxy, the year has been nothing but disappointment after disappointment. Civil Rights: Hard to think of anything the GOP or Pres. Trump has proposed with which I agree, from gender issues to voting rights, the GOP is allowing Trump to lead on these subjects — in the wrong direction. Gay marriage should never have been a national issue. Private matters are private, between consenting adults. The libertarians and social conservatives will always be in conflict on these issues. On voting rights, I am okay with a basic national ID standard, as is being implemented for the TSA via ne...

Supporters of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton seem to be stuck in reality distortion bubbles. This is slightly more pronounced on the Trump side, where outright misinformation is believed. But the Clinton supporters are quick to selectively cite misleading information. Misleading data are only slightly better (and sometimes worse) than wrong information when trying to understand and correct problems. Trump supporters: He lost the popular vote. There was no widespread fraud, no mobs of illegal immigrants storming the ballot boxes. He lost, and lost significantly on the raw national popular vote total. (But it is complicated. See notes to Clinton supporters.) He is the least popular president-elect in the history of polling data. There is no mandate. He plans to nominate a cabinet that troubles many traditional conservatives, libertarians, and progressives. That's not a way to build bridges when you lack a mandate. He has a serious problem with facts. You know, that "tr...

Tonight, someone generalized so broadly about libertarianism that I was shaking in anger. The notion that libertarians do not care about other people is beyond insulting. It is precisely because we do care about human rights that we want government powers and government intrusions limited. People trusting the government any more than they trust corporations will either be disappointed or choose to willfully ignore the failures of government. And government fails spectacularly on a constant basis. It scares me that an increasing number of people are okay with "socialism" or "communism" and have nothing but contempt for classical liberalism. They blindly associate libertarian ideals with crony capitalism and a lack of compassion. Most of us in the "classical liberal" school of thought are not Libertarians with a capital-L as in the Libertarian Party. The party, for one thing, does not reflect the Austrian economists much less Adam Smith. The Libertar...

No matter what states try, election participation is falling. This doesn't correspond to voter ID laws, narrow voting windows, or anything else. States with vote-by-mail (Oregon) and at-will absentee voting (California) also have abysmal voting rates. If voter turnout is key, why is it so low? - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette : Taken together, just 15 percent of the voting-age population cast ballots -- or 18.2 million people out of 122.8 million eligible. Turnout was 17 percentage points lower than the most recent high-water mark of 32 percent in 1966. Democrats were down 14.5 points from their 1970 high, or 20.9 percent of eligible citizens, and Republicans were down 5 points from their 1966 high of 13 percent. Why? Because most of us know… our votes don't really count. States and districts are increasingly polarized. States are not gerrymandered, so we can't blame redistricting for partisanship in the United States Senate. When did California last have a Republican senator? ...

The "Great Sort" at the local and state level, not the evils of redistricting, has changed our government — and, more importantly, our national discussions on all issues. And I do mean all  issues, because studies show left/right; progressive / liberal / libertarian / conservative; secular/religious; North / South / East / West; and other ways to group people correlate to music choices, television viewing, trust in government, and much more. How can we prove that redistricting isn't the villain behind our political discourse? Easily: we look at the Senate, which should represent entire states, not statistically modeled and gerrymandered districts. Yet, the Senate, supposedly the great deliberative body of our government, has become little more than yet another left-right battleground. The ideological middle is dead in Congress. Really dead. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/04/10/the-ideological-middle-is-dead-in-congress-really-dead/ BY CHRIS CIL...

I hesitate to suggest a book I haven't yet read, but I read Sean Trende loyally. The book, available today, is  The Lost Majority . A link to the introduction can be found at:  The Lost Majority . The introduction states: This book makes three interrelated claims. First, that the 2010 midterm elections were a result of Barack Obama and the Democrats misreading both their mandate and how they had been brought to power, imagining a realignment in 2008 when, in fact, none had occurred. Second, that the emerging partisan majorities described by theorists from both parties are mirages. Third, that the entire concept of realignments/permanent alignments, which underlay much of the misbegotten analysis of the 2008 elections, is bankrupt and should be abandoned. I wholeheartedly agree with these statements. The "swings" mentioned in the media, by historians, and by some political scientists are illusions. The swings are of a few percentages, generally in the...

Following my last post, a friend asked if I was "coming out" as a Republican. No. That's not going to happen, since I am deeply offended by the influence of the religious conservatives within the GOP. I have no interest in supporting candidates or a party that isn't willing to "live and let live" on most social issues. But, I'm also not going to embrace a party that wants to regulate an even broader range of behaviors I consider to be personal choices. If I want a greasy burger or a buttery croissant, leave me alone. "Sin tax" is one of the more idiotic phrases in government revenue collection. Given a choice, I am more likely to support and even work for "conservative" Democrats, but I'd also consider a "liberal" Republican. However, I tend to focus on issues as a scholar and adviser rather than individuals. I don't like or trust politicians, but I can support a cause. If you want me to collect data and report o...

Something to consider: the entrepreneurs essential to the United States are increasingly concentrated in one political party. This plays into the narratives of both left and right. The left can argue that this trend proves the evil GOP is merely a tool of the business class. The right can argue that business is being vilified by the left, even though businesses and business owners pay the taxes necessary for our government to exist. W.W. writing "Democracy in America" at The Economist's website has the following entry, discussing the steady shift of both management and business owners towards the Republican party, while "routine" white-collar workers have shifted to the Democratic party: Uncertainty and economic recovery: Partisan animal spirits | The Economist Of course, whether entrepreneurs and small-business types see Washington as an adversary or partner is not entirely a matter of in-the-trenches business experience. It is at least partly a matter of ...

There is an assumption that the GOP is making a mistake when it shift to the right. I'm not so sure, in the short term, based on my travels and work this year. I've been from Florida to California, Minnesota to Texas. What I hear is a shift, a sharp shift, to conservative fiscal views -- and a deep anti-union, anti-corporation, anti-politician sentiment. From Pew (July 16, 2010): "In assessing their own political views, 40% of voters describe their own political views as conservative (either conservative or very conservative), 36% as moderate, and 22% as liberal (including very liberal). There are substantial differences in the way that Republican and Democratic voters describe their political views." (http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1669/political-ideology-democrats-seen-farther-from-center-than-republicans) Working with colleagues analyzing local views, we find a substantial "blue collar" shift to the right. Even in New Jersey, we find that 40% of "likely...

If you want to know the difference between the ruling class and the rest of us: Obama's Ohio visit points to jobs divide between public, private sector - CSMonitor.com "Republicans have more private sector employment, with 63 percent of households citing at least one members privately employed, compared with 46 percent for Democrats." From an article on the Reason website: Sixty-three percent of "the rich," those in the top 15 income segment (annual income greater than $100,000) are government employees. Among those in the top 1 percent of income($500,000 annually), 85 percent are private-sector. Bureau of Labor Statistics report reveals as of 2010 government workers earn an average of 44 percent more than similar private-sector workers and over 66 percent greater benefits. California taxpayers are already paying pensions of over $100,000 a year to more than 12,000 former government workers… Something is wrong with a system that pays the "ruling class...

Democrats think it is a winning strategy to label every opponent as racist, sexist, homophobe. This is a serious mistake, but it is being repeated again and again in editorial pages across the United States. It's easy. Blame opposition to this president and the congress on anything other than their policies. When you scream Racist! you force opponents to either respond or waste time distancing themselves from true nutcases. In some ways, it is brilliant politics. It is a no-lose slogan in the short-run of most political seasons. However, this is a long-term situation and eventually the cries of racism will lose effect. The Democrats will continue to lose the independent voters, especially business owners. CNN/Money reports that a $14/hr employee costs $20/hr and that will continue to rise. Being afraid of going broke isn't racist. Small business is getting hammered. We oppose policies, not a person. At some point, the Dems will have chased away the middle class. The oth...

There is little doubt that the last two years are the result of lax SEC enforcement under Chairman Cox (R) and the Bush (R) administration took far too long to react to such nonsense as credit default swaps. Add to this the Democratic Congress' refusal to control Freddie and Fannie... here are the results: January 3, 2007 - Democratic Congress seated - DOW = 12,398 November 4, 2008 - Barack Obama elected - DOW = 9,625 (down 22.3%) January 20, 2009 - Barack Obama sworn in - DOW = 8,228 (down 14.5%) February 18, 2009 - Barack Obama signs "stimulus package" into law - DOW = 7,556 (down 8.2%) Close on Thursday February 26, 2009 - DOW = 7,182 (down 5.0%) In terms of decline alone: Total market collapse since Democrats took control of Congress - DOW down 42.0% Total market collapse since Obama elected - DOW down 25.4% Total market collapse since Obama sworn in - DOW down 12.7% And today, the GSEs announce that they need more taxpayer...